Armstrong Franklin

Axel Lieber is an Affiliate partner of ours in Tokyo, where he has owned and operated a search business since the late 90’s. This is a compelling account of the current situation in Tokyo with a clear message for the rest of the world.

WHY I STAY IN TOKYO

By Axel Lieber, resident of Tokyo since 1998

Published at http://www.facebook.com/note.php?saved&&note_id=10150164049983623

[This commentary contains footnotes and links that allow you to verify what I am saying.]

Thousands have left Tokyo recently in a panic about the perceived radiation threat. If you ask any one of them to precisely articulate what the threat consists of, they will be unable to do so. This is because they actually don’t know, and because in fact there is no threat justifying departure.They flee because they have somehow heard that there is a threat – from the media, their embassies, their relatives overseas, friends, etc. These sources of information, too, have never supplied a credible explanation for their advisories.

But they have managed to create a mass panic, leading to thousands of people wasting their money on expensive air fares, disrupting their professional lives, their children’s education, and the many other productive activities they were going about. In some cases, foreign executives have abandoned their post in Tokyo, guaranteeing a total loss of respect among those who have stayed behind. Some service providers will lose long-term clientele because they have fled, leaving their customers and clients forced to find new providers. Another result of all the hysteria is that attention has been diverted away from the real disaster: the damage done in north-eastern Japan where thousands have died, and many tens of thousands live in dreadful conditions right now, waiting for help.

Contrast this with the fact that radioactivity levels in Tokyo are entirely safe and have been since the beginning of the Fukushima incident (*1a, and *1b for continuous updates). Modern instruments to measure radioactivity are extremely sensitive and precise, and report even the smallest deviations with impressive reliability. Nowhere in the Tokyo area have there been any measurements that would imply any sort of health risk. There certainly have been increases in radioactivity but they are tiny and simply irrelevant to anyone’s health. There is also no fear that there could be some kind of cover-up. Instruments to measure radioactivity are available at many different research institutions that are not controlled by the Japanese government. The J-gov does also not control the media. They simply have no laws and no means to do so.

But what about a worst-case scenario, one that is yet to come? For four days now, I have tried to find a serious source of information – a nuclear safety engineer or a public health expert – who would be able to articulate just what exactly the threat to residents of Tokyo is. It has been difficult because there aren’t many who bother to. I could quote several Japanese experts here but won’t do so  to avoid a debate over their credibility (which I personally do not have any particular doubt about). The most to-the-point assessment I have found from outside of Japan comes from the UK government’s Chief Science Minister (they have such a thing!), Sir John Beddington. In a phone call to the British embassy in Tokyo, he says about the worst-case scenario:

“In this reasonable worst case you get an explosion. You get some radioactive material going up to about 500m up into the air. Now, that’s really serious, but it’s serious again for the local area….The problems are within 30 km of the reactor. And to give you a flavour for that, when Chernobyl had a massive fire at the graphite core, material was going up not just 500m but to 30,000 feet (9,144m) . It was lasting not for the odd hour or so but lasted months, and that was putting nuclear radioactive material up into the upper atmosphere for a very long period of time. But even in the case of Chernobyl, the exclusion zone that they had was about 30km. And in that exclusion zone, outside that, there is no evidence whatsoever to indicate people had problems from the radiation. The problems with Chernobyl were people were continuing to drink the water, continuing to eat vegetables and so on and that was where the problems came from. That’s not going to be the case here. So what I would really re-emphasise is that this is very problematic for the area and the immediate vicinity and one has to have concerns for the people working there. Beyond that 20-30km, it’s really not an issue for health”. (*2)

It is important to note that Beddington, too, uses language such as “really serious”. Most nuclear safety engineers at this moment would describe the Fukushima incident as “very serious” and as having potentially “catastrophic consequences”. But the important point to note here is that these descriptions of the situation do not translate into public health concerns for Tokyo residents! They apply to the local situation at and around the Fukushima plant alone.

As of the time of writing this note (March 19, 2011, 13:00 JST), the  status at Fukushima is still precarious but there are now signs that the situation is stabilizing and may be brought under control in the next few days.  (*3)

Tokyo, even at this time of crisis, remains one of the best, safest and coolest large cities in the world to live in. All public services operate normally or almost normally. Many areas of central Tokyo have not had any power outages, and when such occur they are limited to a few hours and certain areas, and are announced well in advance. I have personally not experienced any power outages.  Food is available in almost normal quantity and quality. The only food type I have personally seen to be lacking is milk and dairy products, and rice because of panic purchases. Gas (petrol) supply is indeed limited but just yesterday I was able to get a full tank of gas after “only” a fifteen minute wait. Public order and safety in Tokyo remains higher than in any other large city in the world, as it has always been over the past few decades.

To really rub this in: if you live in New York, Shanghai, Berlin, London or Sydney or any other metropolis, you are more exposed to public safety threats such as crime or road accidents than I am at this moment, and in most cases considerably so.

Active and passive smoking, driving a car or motorcycle, getting a chest x-ray, jay-walking, or snowboarding down a snowy mountain are all much more risky activities than simply sitting on a sunny roof terrace in Tokyo.

And sunny it is today, in the capital of the country whose name is literally “Origin of the Sun”.

To obtain level-headed information about the status at Fukushima, avoid CNN and read www.mitnse.com or www.bravenewclimate.com

Footnotes

(1a) http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20110316D15JFA16.htm

(1b) http://metropolis.co.jp/quake/quake-2011-03/tokyo-atmospheric-radiation-levels/

(2) http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/ferguswalsh/2011/03/japan_nuclear_leak_-_health_risks_2.html

(3) http://mitnse.com/2011/03/18/news-update-318/

The US economy added 192,000 jobs in February, the Labor Department reported. The private sector added 222,000 jobs, the biggest jump since April 2010. In addition, the January numbers were amended to show to an increase of 63,000 jobs, up from the original estimate of 36,000.

The unemployment rate fell to 8.9% last month. This is the first time it has dropped below 9% since April 2009.

The Staffing Industry Analyst group (www.staffingindustry.com) estimated 2010 direct hire revenues to be $4.2Bn up around 20% from 2009. The growth is encouraging, but still less than half of the estimated $9.8Bn in 2007. Tony Gregoire, Senior Research Analyst, says in a cautionary note,

“ We project that the US Direct Hire market will be $4.7Bn in 2012. This is less than the size of the market in 1998. It just feels high because revenues were $3.5Bn in 2009. It will take several years for direct hire to reach its 2007 peak.”

We have spent the last few days closing out 2010 and finalizing plans for 2011. It seems to get harder to write new budgets and plans every year. Here are 5 trends we expect to see in 2011:

1) Continued growth in the Manufacturing Sector

The December 2010 Institute of Supply Management index rose in December for the 17th consecutive month. New orders jumped by 4.3 percentage points from the prior month and production jumped 5.7 percentage points. The ISM reports that “…recovery centered on strength in autos, metals, food, machinery, computers and electronics. Manufacturers that export have benefited from both global demand and a weaker dollar. They forecast continued momentum into Q1, 2011.

2) At least 2 Million new jobs

This sounds aggressive, until you consider that aprox. 1 Million new jobs will have been added in 2010 when the final numbers are calculated. Additionally, approx. 8.5 Million jobs were lost in 2008 and 2009. Productivity gains are slowing over the last 3 quarters, meaning employers will find it hard to delay hiring as the economy continues to recover. Watch for the GDP number. Anything over 2.5% should create new jobs.

3) Cloud Computing

Expect to see a rush of both large and small business alike away from expensive in-house servers and IT support to cloud computing. This trend toward business process outsourcing will see significant increases in new, small and local IT services companies.

4) 70 is the new 60

There is no getting away from it….we’re going to be working longer. In the last couple of months we’ve seen proposals and plans from most of the G20 to increase the retirement age at which full government retirement pensions/ benefits are paid. Additionally, with the harm caused to 401k/ pension funds, many Boomers simply can’t afford to retire.

5) Increase in Business Spending

Most experts are forecasting a continued growth in business spending, 10% seems to be a general consensus. Look for continued growth in spending for equipment and software, as companies look to replace essential operating tools. The added benefit of the tax break allowing businesses to fully expense 100% of the cost of assets put to use in 2011 will be further incentive.

We are starting January in a quietly confident mood. We have seen an uptick in new searches from client companies and, for the first time in a long, long time, there seems to be some indication of an increase in urgency when hiring. Watch this space as the year goes on for more thoughts.

I travel extensively and read a wonderful editorial in the South West Airlines magazine recently. It spoke to America being the land of the second chance, particularly relevant as many people are undergoing enforced career changes.

For a disheartened job seeker, there may be some words of encouragement in the article. Just consider all of these legendary Americans that took a second chance and found greatness:

• Harry S. Truman: A 38-year-old, bankrupt haberdasher before entering politics
• Ulysses S. Grant: An alcoholic and failed businessman before volunteering for military duty
• Clara Barton: Unemployed and living with her father at age 36 before founding the Red Cross
• Steve Jobs: Fired from Apple, steered Pixar to success, and then returned to be a pioneer at Apple

As an immigrant who chased (and is still chasing) the American Dream, one of the greatest things about this country is the opportunity to put failures behind us and try again. The article summarized this spirit by saying that the mark of a person’s character isn’t about success or failure.  It is determined instead by a person’s actions in the wake of disaster, failure, or just plain, bad luck.

This is the Land of Try Again, so keep searching for that new job – it’s out there!

The topic “du jour” is reducing unemployment and, as a Business Owner working in the Employment Sector, I have some clear opinions.  Here are 4 ways to cut unemployment with almost immediate impact . . .

1. Eliminate all payroll taxes…today. This is radical, but with payroll taxes somewhere around 10% of payroll costs, cutting these out for 12 months would have a huge impact for employers. I believe the additional hiring and subsequent reduction in employment costs would more than cover the lost taxes. In addition, those additional employees would ramp productivity ensuring increasing revenues from Business Taxes. Imagine also the impact the restoration of payroll taxes would have to the national coffers 12 months later!

2. This is an apolitical blog, but keep the Bush tax cuts. Consider 2 amazing stats…70% of new jobs are created by small, privately owned businesses. 50% of all taxpayers earning over $200k are small business owners filing personal and business returns together. Give these entrepreneurs more money to spend and they won’t buy new cars or fancy toys; they’ll hire new employees to grow their businesses.

3. Reduce Unemployment Insurance back to 26 weeks from 100 weeks. We have a duty as a society to look after the people that can’t work or can’t look after themselves. We don’t need to look after the work-shy. Right now in our Temporary Staffing business, we hear daily from individuals that they can earn almost as much staying at home as they can working. It is also too difficult to move from work to unemployment insurance and back again. Simplify the system, cut the timeline, and drive the work-shy back to work.

4. Extend and improve the e-Verify system. In short, help employers verify that the people they are employing are legally entitled to be here. I dread to think how many illegal workers are depriving legitimate workers of a job. It really can’t be that hard to do, it just needs the political will.